Sun spits STORM OF FIRE at Earth, will the northern lights be visible?

A powerful solar storm approaching Earth should not be a direct hit, removing much cause for alarm. On Wednesday, the Sun spewed an X1.6 class solar flare aimed right at Earth, but the bulk of the resulting coronal mass ejection appears on track to miss Earth, passing just overhead.

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LOS ANGELES, CA (Catholic Online) - A powerful solar eruption is making its way towards Earth, but we should be just fine. This is the verdict from scientists who have been tracking a major coronal mass ejection that erupted yesterday afternoon.

The Sun has a natural cycle that runs about 11 years. During that cycle, activity increased and peaks with a reversal of the star's magnetic poles, then activity drops off to virtually nothing in the intervening years. Presently, scientists believe the Sun has already reversed its poles and activity should be on the downswing, but historically this is the time when the Sun has unleashed some of its most powerful storms.

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The present storm was sparked by an X1.6 class solar flare which is among the most powerful class of solar flare, but it's not the most powerful flare we've ever observed. Scientists classify solar flares on a scale that goes, C to M to X, with C flares being the weakest usual kind and X the strongest. Within solar flare classes, they are assigned a magnitude. The most powerful solar flare ever recorded was an X28 flare released in 2003.

An epic flare known as the Carrington Event, in 1859 has been estimated at X40.

To note, solar flare classifications can exceed these ranges, but such exceptions have not been recorded on the high end (Z class), and low end classifications such as A and B are not noteworthy.

The present flare is a major flare, but somewhat medium-small as X-flares go. It also hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) towards Earth, which is a common feature associated with powerful flares.

Coronal mass ejections are waves of charged particles which burst forth from the Sun and travel at high speeds through the solar system. Eventually, one of these waves strikes the Earth's magnetic field and create a geomagnetic storm. During a geomagnetic storm the charged solar particles are drawn towards the Earth where they strike and excite molecules in the upper atmosphere, making them glow like neon lights. The resulting displays are known as aurorae, or the Northern and Southern Lights.

The light shows are famously beautiful, but powerful geomagnetic storms have other less-pleasant effects. The shower of particles can impact communications, cause a dangerous buildup of static electricity on satellites orbiting Earth, and can even burn out power grids on Earth leading to major blackouts.

The media is already alight with speculation that the current CME headed towards Earth could have a similar impact, but this is unlikely. Scientists have determined since yesterday that the main force of the CME will pass over the planet, above the North pole, and Earth will receive just a glancing blow. That's still enough to trigger a display of the Northern lights at high latitudes, and the northern U.S. states are likely to get a show of some kind, but the rest of the nation is unlikely to see anything.

However, it's worth noting that solar science remains inexact and scientists are still using estimations in calculating the anticipated impact from this event. There is a small chance they could be wrong and the skies could light up on Friday night as far south as the southern U.S. states. That chance is exceedingly small.

The CME is estimated to impact Earth sometime on Friday, likely during the day for the United States. Displays should persist into the night at high latitudes. Since power grid and satellite operators have advance warning, it is unlikely that anyone should experience any disruption from this event. Still, it is a powerful remainder that the Sun is dynamic and capable of awesome displays of force.

If you live in the northern states, we hope you enjoy the show. For the rest, it doesn't hurt to look, especially before moonrise washes out any possible activity just two hours after sunset.

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